The Bomb in Our Hands

We can all admit it. Lockdown has taken a mental toll on all of us in some way or other. In a mid-March poll, 32% of people said that worry and tension about coronavirus had a negative effect on their mental health. Two weeks later, in late March, this number had already risen to 45%.

Living each day monotonously, completing the same activities and seeing the same people is in itself an emotional rollercoaster of rocky descents and smooth rises. But inside of everyone there’s a ticking time bomb, slowly waiting to explode and blow up our state of mind. I mean, it was obvious that something would go wrong when you’re basically imprisoned in a house with your own family for an extended period of time. I think I probably speak for the entirety of humanity as I say that it seems like we’re going a little bit stir-crazy. I know my household certainly is!

Think about it: the vast majority of people under sixty-five, and almost everyone under fifty, will be no more inconvenienced by this pandemic than a mild cold or a slight scratchy throat. These people are the ones being forced into making huge sacrifices, and for something that won’t actually affect them. These people make up the most productive part of our population. These people’s efforts support the rest of us, including those who are ill. Why would it be deemed sensible to remove them completely from usual activity? Lost education, lost jobs, lost businesses, and destroyed livelihoods cannot be made good.

And then there’s the point on QALYs. Let me explain. Some scientists try to measure health interventions by using ‘quality of life years’, or QALYs. In absolute perfect health, one QALY equates to one normal year. In the UK, the average age of someone who dies of Covid is eighty. Most of those dying have a relatively small number of QALYs left. However, the younger generation have far more ahead of them compared to the elderly, so factors like direct health effects and an economic downturn have a disproportionate impact on them. We also shouldn’t forget there is more to life than just death. For example, one year with depression is not one QALY. Factoring in all the lockdown-attributable mental and physical health effects short of death, as well as the deaths, it is clear that lockdown is having a gigantic impact on QALYs all across the planet that far outweighs those caused by Covid.

Roger McIntyre, the Professor of Psychiatry at the University of Toronto, says that what we are seeing is a combustible combination of both loneliness and stress that has been amplified by COVID-19. Which is why I say the government should end the lockdown. And fast. You’re not the person holding the bomb in your hands. It’s up to them whether to throw it away or to just let it detonate, leaving a million shattered remnants and a forever traumatised society.